[HubbardBrookCOS] Hubbard Brook phenology projection
Matthew P. Ayres
Matthew.P.Ayres at dartmouth.edu
Sat May 11 17:28:55 EDT 2019
Hi HB,
In case you are interested, we can offer updated phenology predictions for HB 2019.
The last week at HB has been cool as was forecast, even a bit cooler than the forecast. Accordingly, the predicted date of budburst has slipped to 2 days later than our prediction from last week
Based on our leaf-out phenology model, temperatures to date this year, and the 10-day forecast as of 11 May 2019, predictions for budburst on the Main bird plot (490 m asl) are:
* Budburst = 18 May,
* 90% completion of leaf expansion = 29 May,
* Median date of arrival and first clutch initiation for Black-throated Blue Warblers = 14 May and 3 June, respectively.
More details in pg 2 of enclosure.
If the current budburst prediction is accurate, it will be close to the 60-year average but about 7 days later than expected for 2019 (page 1 in enclosure).
Matt
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <https://lists.sr.unh.edu/pipermail/hubbardbrookcos/attachments/20190511/ad4ded92/attachment-0001.html>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: HB.LeafoutProjection.2019.v04.pdf
Type: application/pdf
Size: 522792 bytes
Desc: HB.LeafoutProjection.2019.v04.pdf
URL: <https://lists.sr.unh.edu/pipermail/hubbardbrookcos/attachments/20190511/ad4ded92/HB.LeafoutProjection.2019.v04-0001.pdf>
More information about the HubbardBrookCOS
mailing list