[HubbardBrookCOS] Hubbard Brook phenology projection

[Matthew P. Ayres]

Hi HB,
In case you are interested, we can offer updated phenology predictions for HB 2019.
The last week at HB has been cool as was forecast, even a bit cooler than the forecast. Accordingly, the predicted date of budburst has slipped to 2 days later than our prediction from last week

Based on our leaf-out phenology model, temperatures to date this year, and the 10-day forecast as of 11 May 2019, predictions for budburst on the Main bird plot (490 m asl) are:

*       Budburst = 18 May,

*       90% completion of leaf expansion = 29 May,

*       Median date of arrival and first clutch initiation for Black-throated Blue Warblers = 14 May and 3 June, respectively.
More details in pg 2 of enclosure.

If the current budburst prediction is accurate, it will be close to the 60-year average but about 7 days later than expected for 2019 (page 1 in enclosure).

Matt

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