Hi HB,

In case you are interested, we can offer updated phenology predictions for HB 2019.

The last week at HB has been cool as was forecast, even a bit cooler than the forecast. Accordingly, the predicted date of budburst has slipped to 2 days later than our prediction from last week

Based on our leaf-out phenology model, temperatures to date this year, and the 10-day forecast as of 11 May 2019, predictions for budburst on the Main bird plot (490 m asl) are:

· Budburst = 18 May,

· 90% completion of leaf expansion = 29 May,

· Median date of arrival and first clutch initiation for Black-throated Blue Warblers = 14 May and 3 June, respectively.

More details in pg 2 of enclosure.

If the current budburst prediction is accurate, it will be close to the 60-year average but about 7 days later than expected for 2019 (page 1 in enclosure).

Matt