[HubbardBrookCOS] Hubbard Brook phenology projection

[Matthew P. Ayres]

Hi HB,
In case you are interested, revised phenology predictions for HB 2019.
The last 10 days have been cooler than expected. Accordingly, the predicted date of budburst has slipped to 5 days later than our prediction on 24 April.

Based on our leaf-out phenology model, temperatures to date this year, and the 10-day forecast as of 4 May 2019, predictions for budburst on the Main bird plot (490 m asl) are:

*         Budburst = 16 May,

*         90% completion of leaf expansion = 28 May,

*         Median date of arrival and first clutch initiation for Black-throated Blue Warblers = 13 May and 3 June, respectively.
More details in pg 2 of enclosure.

If the current budburst prediction is accurate, it will be close to the 60-year average but about 5 days later than expected for 2019 (page 1 in enclosure).

Matt

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