Hi HB,

In case you are interested, revised phenology predictions for HB 2019.

The last 10 days have been cooler than expected. Accordingly, the predicted date of budburst has slipped to 5 days later than our prediction on 24 April.

Based on our leaf-out phenology model, temperatures to date this year, and the 10-day forecast as of 4 May 2019, predictions for budburst on the Main bird plot (490 m asl) are:

· Budburst = 16 May,

· 90% completion of leaf expansion = 28 May,

· Median date of arrival and first clutch initiation for Black-throated Blue Warblers = 13 May and 3 June, respectively.

More details in pg 2 of enclosure.

If the current budburst prediction is accurate, it will be close to the 60-year average but about 5 days later than expected for 2019 (page 1 in enclosure).

Matt