[HubbardBrookCOS] Hubbard Brook phenology projection

Matthew P. Ayres Matthew.P.Ayres at dartmouth.edu
Sat May 18 11:34:02 EDT 2019


Hi HB,
In case you are interested, we can offer updated phenology predictions for HB 2019.
The last week at HB has been about as forecast and all updated predictions are within a day of what was estimated last week. Budburst is predicted for tomorrow.

Based on our leaf-out phenology model, temperatures to date this year, and the 10-day forecast as of 18 May 2019, predictions for budburst on the Main bird plot (490 m asl) are:

*       Budburst = 19 May,

*       90% completion of leaf expansion = 30 May,

*       Median date of arrival and first clutch initiation for Black-throated Blue Warblers = 14 May and 4 June, respectively.
More details in pg 2 of enclosure.

If the current budburst prediction is accurate, it will be close to the 60-year average but about 8 days later than expected for 2019 (page 1 in enclosure).

Matt

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