Hi HB,

In case you are interested, we can offer updated phenology predictions for HB 2019.

The last week at HB has been about as forecast and all updated predictions are within a day of what was estimated last week. Budburst is predicted for tomorrow.

Based on our leaf-out phenology model, temperatures to date this year, and the 10-day forecast as of 18 May 2019, predictions for budburst on the Main bird plot (490 m asl) are:

· Budburst = 19 May,

· 90% completion of leaf expansion = 30 May,

· Median date of arrival and first clutch initiation for Black-throated Blue Warblers = 14 May and 4 June, respectively.

More details in pg 2 of enclosure.

If the current budburst prediction is accurate, it will be close to the 60-year average but about 8 days later than expected for 2019 (page 1 in enclosure).

Matt