[HubbardBrook] Hubbard Brook leaf-out forecast, hlding steady

[Matthew P. Ayres]

Greetings Hubbard Brook community,

The warm spell that was foretold has come through according to forecasts. The current forecast predicts approximately normal temperatures for the next 10 days. Based on our current best phenology models (after Lany et al. 2016), temperatures to date this year, and the 10-day forecast as of 16 April 2023, predictions for the mid-elevation bird plot (490 m asl) are unchanged since last week:

  *   Budburst =8 May
  *   90% completion of leaf expansion = 21 May,
  *   Median date of arrival and first clutch initiation for Black-throated Blue Warblers = 12 May and 30 May, respectively.
More details in enclosure.

Feel free to share this with anyone who may be interested. We will aim to provide weekly updates of the forecasts.

Matt

Matthew P. Ayres<http://www.dartmouth.edu/~mpayres/> (h/h)
Professor of Biological Sciences<https://biology.dartmouth.edu/> and Co-Chair Graduate Program in Ecology, Evolution, Environment & Society<http://sites.dartmouth.edu/EEES/>
Life Sciences Center
78 College Street
Hanover, NH  03755  USA
603 646-2788
matthew.p.ayres at Dartmouth.Edu<mailto:matthew.p.ayres at Dartmouth.Edu>


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