[HubbardBrook] Hubbard Brook leaf-out forecast, retreating a bit

[Matthew P. Ayres]

Greetings Hubbard Brook community,

Good news if you are hoping for a couple extra days to get ready for spring. The warm spell of a week ago had the leaf buds speeding through their phenological journey to become leaves, but it has since turned cooler than average and the 10-day forecast is to remain cool. Based on our current best phenology model (after Lany et al. 2016), temperatures to date this year, and the 10-day forecast as of 22 April 2023, here is the phenological forecast for the mid-elevation bird plot (490 m asl):

  *   Budburst = 10 May
  *   90% completion of leaf expansion = 22 May,
  *   Median date of arrival and first clutch initiation for Black-throated Blue Warblers = 12 May and 30 May, respectively.
More details in enclosure.

Feel free to share this with anyone who may be interested. We will aim to provide weekly updates of the forecasts.

Matt

Matthew P. Ayres<http://www.dartmouth.edu/~mpayres/> (h/h)
Professor of Biological Sciences<https://biology.dartmouth.edu/> and Co-Chair Graduate Program in Ecology, Evolution, Environment & Society<http://sites.dartmouth.edu/EEES/>
Life Sciences Center
78 College Street
Hanover, NH  03755  USA
603 646-2788
matthew.p.ayres at Dartmouth.Edu<mailto:matthew.p.ayres at Dartmouth.Edu>


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