[HubbardBrook] Hubbard Brook leaf-out forecast, moving earlier

[Matthew P. Ayres]

Greetings Hubbard Brook community,

It has remained cool at Hubbard Brook, but the forecast is for unseasonally warm weather next week (Thursday and Friday forecast to reach 70 F). The forecast dates of leaf-out and canopy closure have advanced by three days since last week. Based on our current best phenology models (after Lany et al. 2016), temperatures to date this year, and the 10-day forecast as of 8 April 2023, predictions for the mid-elevation bird plot (490 m asl) are:

  *   Budburst =8 May
  *   90% completion of leaf expansion = 21 May,
  *   Median date of arrival and first clutch initiation for Black-throated Blue Warblers = 12 May and 30 May, respectively.
More details in enclosure.

Feel free to share this with anyone who may be interested. We will aim to provide weekly updates of the forecasts.

Matt

[cid:image001.png at 01D96A13.2A396E30]

Matthew P. Ayres<http://www.dartmouth.edu/~mpayres/> (h/h)
Professor of Biological Sciences<https://biology.dartmouth.edu/> and Co-Chair Graduate Program in Ecology, Evolution, Environment & Society<http://sites.dartmouth.edu/EEES/>
Life Sciences Center
78 College Street
Hanover, NH  03755  USA
603 646-2788
matthew.p.ayres at Dartmouth.Edu<mailto:matthew.p.ayres at Dartmouth.Edu>






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