[HubbardBrook] Hubbard Brook leaf-out forecast for 2021

[Matthew P. Ayres]

Hi Alex,
Thank you for appreciating the phenology forecasts! I think they are a lot of fun, as well as being very practical. I probably don't have the bandwith now to develop a model for Bartlett, but there could be a simple version if you have access to daily max and min temps for the site of interest - best if you can get them online in real time like the SCAN site at HB.
Please feel free to share my note and pdf with your slack channel!
Matt

From: Alexander Young <alexyoung.116 at gmail.com>
Sent: Saturday, April 10, 2021 13:36
To: Matthew P. Ayres <Matthew.P.Ayres at dartmouth.edu>
Cc: Hubbardbrook at lists.sr.unh.edu
Subject: Re: [HubbardBrook] Hubbard Brook leaf-out forecast for 2021

This is so cool. I hope you realize that now Im going to be looking forward to getting these leaf out forecasts each spring in perpetuity for the HBES.

The folks over at the ecological forecasting initiative would love the 3 pager you made.  There is a slack channel that is pretty active, and even a forecasting phenology challenge that is currently running. Would you be interested in submitting predictions for the Bartlett phenology?

Otherwise, may I share the pdf with the slack page giving credit to Matt Ayres and associated crew?

Best,
Alex

On Sat, Apr 10, 2021, 1:10 PM Matthew P. Ayres via HubbardBrook <hubbardbrook at lists.sr.unh.edu<mailto:hubbardbrook at lists.sr.unh.edu>> wrote:
Hi Hubbard Brook,
Have you had the feeling that spring is coming quickly? It looks like it for Hubbard. If the forecast holds, this will be the 3rd earliest leaf-out at HB since 1956.

Based on our current best phenology models (after Lany et al. 2015), temperatures to date this year, and the 10-day forecast as of 9 April 2021, predictions for budburst on the mid-elvation bird plot (490 m asl) are:

*       Budburst = 5 May,

*       90% completion of leaf expansion = 19 May,

*       Median date of arrival and first clutch initiation for Black-throated Blue Warblers = 12 May and 28 May, respectively.
More details in enclosure.

Feel free to share this with anyone who may be interested. We will aim to provide weekly updates of the forecasts.

Matt

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