[HubbardBrook] Hubbard Brook leaf-out forecast for 2021

[Matthew P. Ayres]

Hi Hubbard Brook,
Nine days have passed since our last prognostication, but temperatures since then went about as forecast, and forecast for the next 10 days is similar to the historical expectations for these dates. The forecasted dates of all four phenological events that we study have remained unchanged.

Based on our current best phenology models (after Lany et al. 2015), temperatures to date this year, and the 10-day forecast as of 9 April 2021, predictions for budburst on the mid-elvation bird plot (490 m asl) are:

*       Budburst = 5 May,

*       90% completion of leaf expansion = 19 May,

*       Median date of arrival and first clutch initiation for Black-throated Blue Warblers = 12 May and 28 May, respectively.
More details in enclosure.

Feel free to share this with anyone who may be interested. We will aim to provide weekly updates of the forecasts.

Matt

From: Matthew P. Ayres
Sent: Saturday, April 10, 2021 13:10
To: Hubbardbrook at lists.sr.unh.edu
Subject: Hubbard Brook leaf-out forecast for 2021

Hi Hubbard Brook,
Have you had the feeling that spring is coming quickly? It looks like it for Hubbard. If the forecast holds, this will be the 3rd earliest leaf-out at HB since 1956.

Based on our current best phenology models (after Lany et al. 2015), temperatures to date this year, and the 10-day forecast as of 9 April 2021, predictions for budburst on the mid-elvation bird plot (490 m asl) are:

*       Budburst = 5 May,

*       90% completion of leaf expansion = 19 May,

*       Median date of arrival and first clutch initiation for Black-throated Blue Warblers = 12 May and 28 May, respectively.
More details in enclosure.

Feel free to share this with anyone who may be interested. We will aim to provide weekly updates of the forecasts.

Matt

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