[HubbardBrook] Hubbard Brook phenology forecast

[Matthew P. Ayres]

Greetings Hubbard Brook community,
We are pleased to provide an updated phenology forecast. The predicted dates of budburst and 90% leaf expansion have both retreated by one day since the last forecast.

While you are enjoying the spring, consider that already last fall each bud on the sugar maples, beeches, birches, etc. already contained all of the cells required to produce the cluster of leaves that will be rapidly produced in the next weeks by each bud. Here is a time lapse video of a sugar maple bud in my backyard last spring.
Sugar maple bud to sugar maple leaves<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TMi6YRvioLM>
The process depicted occurred over about 230 °days > 4 °C

Based on our current best phenology models (after Lany et al. 2016), temperatures to date this year, and the 10-day forecast as of 23 April 2024, predictions for the mid-elevation bird plot (490 m asl) are:

·        Budburst = 12 May,

·        90% completion of leaf expansion = 24 May,

·        Median date of arrival and first clutch initiation for Black-throated Blue Warblers = 12 May and 31 May, respectively.
More details in enclosure.

Feel free to share this with anyone who may be interested. We will aim to provide continuing updates of the forecasts.

Matt

[cid:image002.png at 01DA95B0.B8FF6920]


Matthew P. Ayres<http://www.dartmouth.edu/~mpayres/> (h/h)
Professor of Biological Sciences<https://biology.dartmouth.edu/>; Co-Chair Graduate Program in Ecology, Evolution, Environment & Society<http://sites.dartmouth.edu/EEES/>; Senior Faculty Fellow Institute of Arctic Studies<https://dickey.dartmouth.edu/programs/arctic-environment/institute-arctic-studies>
Life Sciences Center
78 College Street
Hanover, NH  03755  USA
603 646-2788
matthew.p.ayres at dartmouth.edu<mailto:matthew.p.ayres at dartmouth.edu>

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