[HubbardBrook] Hubbard Brook leaf-out forecast

[Matthew P. Ayres]

Greetings Hubbard Brook community,
We did not accumulate quite as many degree days this past week as had been forecast and the updated forecast is for a bit cooler than usual. The predicted date of leaf-out has retreated by 5 days.

Based on our current best phenology models (after Lany et al. 2016), temperatures to date this year, and the 10-day forecast as of 14 April 2024, predictions for the mid-elevation bird plot (490 m asl) are:

*        Budburst = 11 May,

*        90% completion of leaf expansion = 23 May,

*        Median date of arrival and first clutch initiation for Black-throated Blue Warblers = 12 May and 30 May, respectively.
More details in enclosure.

Feel free to share this with anyone who may be interested. We will aim to provide continuing updates of the forecasts.

Matt

[cid:image001.png at 01DA8E94.019FBA00]


Matthew P. Ayres<http://www.dartmouth.edu/~mpayres/> (h/h)
Professor of Biological Sciences<https://biology.dartmouth.edu/>; Co-Chair Graduate Program in Ecology, Evolution, Environment & Society<http://sites.dartmouth.edu/EEES/>; Senior Faculty Fellow Institute of Arctic Studies<https://dickey.dartmouth.edu/programs/arctic-environment/institute-arctic-studies>
Life Sciences Center
78 College Street
Hanover, NH  03755  USA
603 646-2788
matthew.p.ayres at dartmouth.edu<mailto:matthew.p.ayres at dartmouth.edu>

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