[HubbardBrook] Hubbard Brook leaf-out forecast, retreated by two more days

[Matthew P. Ayres]

Greetings Hubbard Brook community,

It has been a bit cooler than forecast for the last week and our updated forecast for leaf-out on the Hubbard Brook bird plots has slid two days further back. Now the median arrival date for Black-throated Blue Warblers is forecast to be the day before leaf-out. Based on our current best phenology model (after Lany et al. 2016), temperatures to date this year, and the 10-day forecast as 7 May 2023, here is the phenological forecast for the mid-elevation bird plot (490 m asl):

  *   Budburst =14 May
  *   90% completion of leaf expansion = 25 May,
  *   Median date of arrival and first clutch initiation for Black-throated Blue Warblers = 13 May and 1 June, respectively.
More details in graphic below and more yet in enclosure. Farther below is an image of the canopy from near the bird plots yesterday 6 May.

Feel free to share this with anyone who may be interested. We will aim to provide continuing updates of phenology forecasts through the period of leaf expansion.

Matt

Matthew P. Ayres<http://www.dartmouth.edu/~mpayres/> (h/h)
Professor of Biological Sciences<https://biology.dartmouth.edu/> and Co-Chair Graduate Program in Ecology, Evolution, Environment & Society<http://sites.dartmouth.edu/EEES/>
Life Sciences Center
78 College Street
Hanover, NH  03755  USA
603 646-2788
matthew.p.ayres at Dartmouth.Edu<mailto:matthew.p.ayres at Dartmouth.Edu>

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