[HubbardBrook] Hubbard Brook leaf-out forecast for 2022, updated

[Matthew P. Ayres]

Greetings Hubbard Brook community,
The advance towards spring continues - slowly -- but about as projected in last week's forecast. So far there has been an accumulation since 22 March of only about 20 degree days (> 4 C) on the mid-elevation birds plots (490 m asl). Leaf-out occurs at about 190 degree days. Leaf-out is now forecast for 10 May, which is for one day earlier than last week's forecast.

Based on our current best phenology models (after Lany et al. 2016), temperatures to date this year, and the 10-day forecast as of 10 April 2022, predictions for the mid-elevation bird plot (490 m asl) are:

*       Budburst =10 May,

*       90% completion of leaf expansion = 23 May,

*       Median date of arrival and first clutch initiation for Black-throated Blue Warblers = 12 May and 31 May, respectively.
More details in enclosure.

Feel free to share this with anyone who may be interested. We will aim to provide continuing updates of the forecasts.

Matt

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