[HubbardBrook] Hubbard Brook leaf-out forecast for 2021

[Matthew P. Ayres]

Hi Hubbard Brook,
Have you had the feeling that spring is coming quickly? It looks like it for Hubbard. If the forecast holds, this will be the 3rd earliest leaf-out at HB since 1956.

Based on our current best phenology models (after Lany et al. 2015), temperatures to date this year, and the 10-day forecast as of 9 April 2021, predictions for budburst on the mid-elvation bird plot (490 m asl) are:

*       Budburst = 5 May,

*       90% completion of leaf expansion = 19 May,

*       Median date of arrival and first clutch initiation for Black-throated Blue Warblers = 12 May and 28 May, respectively.
More details in enclosure.

Feel free to share this with anyone who may be interested. We will aim to provide weekly updates of the forecasts.

Matt

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