[HubbardBrook] Updated leaf-out forecast for Hubbard Brook

[Ruth D Yanai]

Flatten that curve!

On May 5, 2020, at 10:49 AM, Mike Webster via HubbardBrook <Hubbardbrook at lists.sr.unh.edu<mailto:Hubbardbrook at lists.sr.unh.edu>> wrote:

Thanks for the update. The delayed spring is good news for our fieldwork: given the Sununu just extended the stay-at-home order for NH, we won’t be able to get anybody to HBEF until early June at the earliest!

Mike


From: HubbardBrook <hubbardbrook-bounces at lists.sr.unh.edu<mailto:hubbardbrook-bounces at lists.sr.unh.edu>> on behalf of "Matthew P. Ayres via HubbardBrook" <Hubbardbrook at lists.sr.unh.edu<mailto:Hubbardbrook at lists.sr.unh.edu>>
Reply-To: "Matthew P. Ayres" <Matthew.P.Ayres at dartmouth.edu<mailto:Matthew.P.Ayres at dartmouth.edu>>
Date: Monday, May 4, 2020 at 10:08 PM
To: "Hubbardbrook at lists.sr.unh.edu<mailto:Hubbardbrook at lists.sr.unh.edu>" <Hubbardbrook at lists.sr.unh.edu<mailto:Hubbardbrook at lists.sr.unh.edu>>
Subject: [HubbardBrook] Updated leaf-out forecast for Hubbard Brook

Hi HB,
Even more good news if you were hoping for a late spring. The last week has been cooler than forecast and the next 10 days are forecast to be much cooler than average for these dates. As a result, the updated spring forecast for budburst on the Main bird plot has slipped back a whopping 6 days since last week to 21 May.

Based on our current best phenology models (after Lany et al. 2015), temperatures to date this year, and the 10-day forecast as of 5 May 2020, predictions for budburst on the Main bird plot (490 m asl) are:

  *   Budburst = 21 May,
  *   90% completion of leaf expansion = 31 May,
  *   Median date of arrival and first clutch initiation for Black-throated Blue Warblers = 13 May and 4 June, respectively.

More details in enclosure.

If the current budburst prediction is accurate, it will be about 9 days later than that expected for 2020 (below and page 2 in enclosure).

Feel free to share this with anyone who may be interested. We will aim to provide weekly updates of the forecasts.

Matt

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