Thanks for the update. The delayed spring is good news for our fieldwork: given the Sununu just extended the stay-at-home order for NH, we won’t be able to get anybody to HBEF until early June at the earliest!
Mike
Hi HB,
Even more good news if you were hoping for a late spring. The last week has been cooler than forecast and the next 10 days are forecast to be much cooler than average for these dates. As a result, the updated
spring forecast for budburst on the Main bird plot has slipped back a whopping 6 days since last week to 21 May.
Based on our current best phenology models (after Lany et al. 2015), temperatures to date this year, and the 10-day forecast as of 5 May 2020, predictions
for budburst on the Main bird plot (490 m asl) are:
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Budburst = 21 May,
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90% completion of leaf expansion = 31 May,
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Median date of arrival and first clutch initiation for Black-throated Blue Warblers = 13 May and 4 June, respectively.
More details in enclosure.
If the current budburst prediction is accurate, it will be about 9 days later than that expected for 2020 (below and page 2 in enclosure).
Feel free to share this with anyone who may be interested. We will aim to provide weekly updates of the forecasts.
Matt
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