[Isocops] Red Flag Storm Conditions
Nathan Schwadron
nschwadron at guero.sr.unh.edu
Thu Mar 8 21:56:56 EST 2012
Hi Chelle and Team
Energetic particle fluxes (>10 MeV) have dropped
below 1000 part./cm2-s-sr and look like they are
continuing to ramp down. However, there still
could be another event as we are becoming progressively
well connected to the active region causing all
the trouble.
I am maintaining the Red Flag at this time because
the 38-80 MeV flux is still quite high, at 3.7 part/cm2-s-sr-MeV,
which is still higher than the Jan 23rd event.
Cheers
Nathan
On Mar 8, 2012, at 6:45 AM, Nathan Schwadron wrote:
> Hi Chelle and Team
>
> Energetic particle fluxes remain quite high (Red Flag Storm Conditions).
> We had shock passage 4 or so hours ago, which caused a significant increase in the >10 MeV
> flux. Right now the >10 MeV flux is around 4000 part./cm^2-s-sr, which
> exceeds the Jan 23rd event.The 38-82 MeV flux to which is the best proxy
> for counts in CEM C of IBEX-Hi is at 9 part./cm^2-s-sr-MeV, which is more
> than 3 times the peak of the Jan 23rd event and about 30% higher than
> during the apogee pass when we saw high CEM C count rates.
>
> I have attached below the 3-Day forecast from SWPC. You will see that while
> >50 MeV fluxes are expected to continue to decay, we also expect elevated
> levels for the >10 MeV fluxes over the next few days. This may mean that we
> will have Red Flag Storm Conditions for the next few days, but then again, conditions
> may get better or worse.
>
> Based on SWPC definitions, I am changing the flag definitions
> as below
>
>
> (> MeV Flux in part./cm^2-s-sr)
> Yellow Flag >10
> Orange >100
> Red >1000
>
> Cheers
>
> Nathan
>
>
> IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z
> to 07/2100Z: Solar activity was high. Region 1429 (N17E15) produced
> an X5/3B long-duration flare with maximum at 07/0024Z. The event was
> associated with type II and type IV radio sweeps and a full halo,
> though slightly asymmetric coronal mass ejection (CME). The CME had
> an estimated plane of sky speed of about 2200 km/s. During the decay
> of the X5 x-ray event, Region 1430 (N21W00) produced an X1/Sf at
> 0114Z. Region 1429 dominates the disk with an area of about 1300
> millionths. Observations show slight separation of the central spots
> but the region continues to be large and magnetically complex;
> multiple deltas are clearly evident as well as a dominant east-west
> polarity inversion line. Region 1430 showed steady growth during the
> past 24 hours. Region 1428 (S17W05) also showed growth during the
> period but was relatively quiet and stable.
>
> IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
> moderate to high. M-class level activity is expected to continue and
> there continues to be a good chance for an additional major flare
> and/or proton producing event from Region 1429. In addition, the
> growth trend in 1430 suggests that it may also contribute to the
> M-flare activity during the next three days.
>
> IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
> The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm levels during
> the past 24 hours. Activity levels were initially quiet to unsettled
> until an interplanetary shock arrived. The shock was seen at ACE at
> 07/0334Z and was followed by a sudden storm commencement (SSC) at
> Earth at 07/0421Z. Although solar wind speeds did not increase
> greatly, the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) and density did
> increase markedly and the Bz component had numerous intervals of
> fairly strong southward orientation (with the strongest negative
> intervals at about -15 to -20 nT). Geomagnetic activity increased to
> minor to major storm levels following the SSC with some periods of
> severe storm levels at high latitudes. The disturbance most likely
> originated from the X1/halo CME that occurred on 05 March. A greater
> than 10 MeV proton event began at 07/0500Z and has reached a peak so
> far of 1630 PFU at 1540Z. A greater than 100 MeV proton event also
> occurred, beginning at 07/0405Z and reaching an apparent maximum of
> 69 PFU at 07/1525Z. Both of these events continue in progress and
> are clearly associated with todays X5/Full halo CME event.
>
> IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
> expected to be active initially on day 1 (08 March) but is expected
> to increase to major storm levels with a likelihood for isolated
> severe storm levels after the arrival of the CME from todays
> X5/full halo event. The arrival time is estimated to be sometime
> between 0600-1000Z. Minor to major storm levels are expected to
> continue partway (6-12 hours) into the second day (09 March), but a
> decline to predominantly active levels is expected for the remainder
> of the day. Predominantly unsettled levels are expected for the
> third day (10 March). The greater than 10 MeV proton event is
> expected to continue through the first day and is also likely to
> continue partway through the second day. The greater than 100 Mev
> proton event is expected to slowly decline over the next 24 hours.
>
>
>
> On Mar 7, 2012, at 6:40 PM, Reno, Michelle wrote:
>
>> Hello team,
>>
>> In the 6pm EST pass we successfully commanded Hi & Lo to their HVSTANDBY voltage levels and entered HVSTANDBY via CAR 527, CAR_DESC_Payload_120327-approved.doc. Prior to reducing voltages the count rates seen were lower than those seen in the earlier pass but still too elevated for good heliospheric science.
>>
>> Thanks,
>> Chelle
>>
>> From: Reno, Michelle
>> Sent: Wed 3/7/2012 2:23 PM
>> To: Reno, Michelle; Herb Funsten (hfunsten at lanl.gov); Dan Reisenfeld (dan.reisenfeld at umontana.edu); Paul Janzen (paul.janzen at umontana.edu); Allegrini, Frederic; McComas, Dave; Scherrer, John; Nathan Schwadron; Harald.Kucharek at unh.edu; Fuselier, Stephen; David Heirtzler; eberhard.moebius at unh.edu; IBEX FDG
>> Cc: Sheral Wesley; Tim Perry; Knapp, Deborah L. (GSFC-5840); lockwood.robert at orbital.com; IBEX FDG; ibexhi at lists.sr.unh.edu; isocops at lists.sr.unh.edu; Tyler.Ryan at orbital.com; Hautamaki.Bret at orbital.com; Regiec.Thomas at orbital.com; Walker Cross; John Cavallo
>> Subject: RE: 2:30 EST : IBEX-Hi Yellow Count Rate CEM C
>>
>> Hello,
>>
>> IBEX-Hi and -Lo have decided to reduce voltages and enter HVSTANDBY as a preventative response to current solar activity. The default plan is to leave the voltages down for the remainder of this arc and return to HVSCI at 15Re ascending of orbit 159 (we are currently near apogee of orbit 158).
>>
>> Attached is the CAR that will be executed during the 60-minute 6pm EST contact. Paul, Harald and I will be monitoring remotely. The party line will be open 10 minutes prior to the start of the pass.
>>
>> 3/07 2300 UTC (6pm EST) : Contact to lower voltages & enter HVSTANDBY
>> 3/09 1845 UTC : Post-sun maneuver contact - TBD on whether to keep
>> 3/10 1736 UTC : Uploaded o0158 DESCENDING commands (no effect besides mode changes)
>> 3/11 1728 UTC : Uploaded o0159 ASCENDING commands execute
>>
>> Thanks,
>> Chelle
>>
>> ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
>> Chelle Reno
>> Austin Mission Consulting
>> (210) 478-7337 (c)
>> ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
>>
>> From: Reno, Michelle
>> Sent: Wed 3/7/2012 1:38 PM
>> To: Reno, Michelle; Herb Funsten (hfunsten at lanl.gov); Dan Reisenfeld (dan.reisenfeld at umontana.edu); Paul Janzen (paul.janzen at umontana.edu); Allegrini, Frederic; McComas, Dave; Scherrer, John; Nathan Schwadron; Harald.Kucharek at unh.edu; Fuselier, Stephen; David Heirtzler; eberhard.moebius at unh.edu
>> Cc: Sheral Wesley; Tim Perry; Knapp, Deborah L. (GSFC-5840); lockwood.robert at orbital.com
>> Subject: RE: 2:30 EST : IBEX-Hi Yellow Count Rate CEM C
>>
>> Sent out the Payload CAR before I saved it. Sorry.
>>
>>
>> From: Reno, Michelle
>> Sent: Wed 3/7/2012 1:18 PM
>> To: Reno, Michelle; Herb Funsten (hfunsten at lanl.gov); Dan Reisenfeld (dan.reisenfeld at umontana.edu); Paul Janzen (paul.janzen at umontana.edu); Allegrini, Frederic; McComas, Dave; Scherrer, John; Nathan Schwadron; Harald.Kucharek at unh.edu; Fuselier, Stephen; David Heirtzler; eberhard.moebius at unh.edu
>> Cc: Sheral Wesley; Tim Perry; Knapp, Deborah L. (GSFC-5840); lockwood.robert at orbital.com
>> Subject: RE: 2:30 EST : IBEX-Hi Yellow Count Rate CEM C
>>
>> Attached are 2 CARs for possible preventative responses. The preventative response contact is scheduled for 2300-0000 UTC (6-7pm EST)
>>
>> CAR_DESC_HiOnly_120307 : Set Hi voltages to HVSTANDBY levels. Return to HVSCI so Lo can continue to collect data.
>> CAR_DESC_Payload_120307 : Set Hi & Lo voltages to HVSTANDBY levels. Enter HVSTANDBY.
>>
>> From: Reno, Michelle
>> Sent: Wed 3/7/2012 12:47 PM
>> To: Herb Funsten (hfunsten at lanl.gov); Dan Reisenfeld (dan.reisenfeld at umontana.edu); Paul Janzen (paul.janzen at umontana.edu); Allegrini, Frederic; McComas, Dave; Scherrer, John; Nathan Schwadron; Harald.Kucharek at unh.edu; Fuselier, Stephen; David Heirtzler; eberhard.moebius at unh.edu
>> Cc: Sheral Wesley; Tim Perry
>> Subject: 2:30 EST : IBEX-Hi Yellow Count Rate CEM C
>>
>> Hello Payload team,
>>
>> Please dial into the IBEX meet me line at 2:30 EST (~1 hour from now).
>>
>> 866-588-1857
>> 289 1982#
>>
>> Summary:
>> CEM C counts toggling about the yellow limit of 1000 counts.
>> CEM A, B 300 - 700 counts.
>> IBEX-Hi will autosafe at 5 consecutive measurements of >= 5000 counts. This is appropriately set for hardware safety.
>> Solar activity is high and will continue to be high.
>>
>> Details:
>> IBEX-Hi saw yellow count rates on CEM C on the apogee pass that is finishing up right now. We called Paul during the pass for a preliminary diagnostic. He said the yellow limit of 1000 counts is conservative but he is calling the rest of the team to get a consensus on whether follow-up action is needed. We will summarize the discussion at the 2:30 call. Lo counts were within normal limits.
>>
>> Follow-up action:
>> Appropriate follow up action, if IBEX-Hi ONLY wants to reduce voltages, would be to send the following commands:
>>
>> DESCENDING_PL1
>> DESCENDING_HI
>> ASCENDING_PL2
>>
>> Thanks,
>> Chelle
>>
>> ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
>> Chelle Reno
>> Austin Mission Consulting
>> (210) 478-7337 (c)
>> ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
>>
>> From: Ibex Mission Operations [mailto:ibexops at gmail.com]
>> Sent: Wed 3/7/2012 10:23 AM
>> To: Michelle Reno; Nathan Schwadron; Tim Perry
>> Cc: Robert Lockwood; Scherrer, John
>> Subject: Incoming CMEs
>>
>> Guys,
>> I have received the warnings from space weather of several CME's this week.
>> SOLAR ACTIVITY: Big sunspot AR1429 has unleashed another major flare--an X5-class eruption on March 7th at 00:28 UT. As a result of the blast, a radiation storm is underway and a CME will likely hit Earth's magnetic field in a day or so
>>
>>
>> I have the following contacts already scheduled. If more are needed, let me know
>>
>> IBEX,USHI02,ADD,03/07/12,067,18:00:00,03/07/12,067,18:35:00,,LAHO 2K IBEX Orbit# 158 Apogee Contact/HAW02
>> IBEX,USHI02,ADD,03/09/12,069,18:45:00,03/09/12,069,19:20:00,,LAHO 2K IBEX Orbit# 158 Post Sun Maneuver Contact/HAW02
>> IBEX,USAK01,ADD,03/10/12,070,22:15:00,03/10/12,070,23:15:00,,LAHO 160K IBEX Orbit# 158 SSR_Dump/Tracking Contact
>> IBEX,AUWA01,ADD,03/11/12,071,15:30:00,03/11/12,071,16:05:00,,LAHO 160K IBEX Orbit# 158 Tracking Contact
>>
>>
>> --
>> Sheral R. Wesley
>> SPVR., Satellite Operations
>> IBEX Mission OPS
>> (304) 279-6678
>>
>> Please restrict discussions on this email list to non-ITAR sensitive topics.
>> _______________________________________________
>> Ibexhi mailing list
>> Ibexhi at lists.sr.unh.edu
>> http://lists.sr.unh.edu/mailman/listinfo/ibexhi
>
> Nathan Schwadron
> n.schwadron at unh.edu
>
> University of New Hampshire
> Morse Hall - Room 353
> 8 College Road
> Durham NH 03824
> USA
>
> (603) 862-3451
>
>
>
>
> Please restrict discussions on this email list to non-ITAR sensitive topics.
> _______________________________________________
> Ibexhi mailing list
> Ibexhi at lists.sr.unh.edu
> http://lists.sr.unh.edu/mailman/listinfo/ibexhi
Nathan Schwadron
n.schwadron at unh.edu
University of New Hampshire
Morse Hall - Room 353
8 College Road
Durham NH 03824
USA
(603) 862-3451
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