[HubbardBrookCOS] Hubbard Brook leaf-out forecast

[Matthew P. Ayres]

Greetings Hubbard Brook community,
Are you ready? I know it has not felt like it in Hanover, but spring phenology will surge forward in the next week. Check-out the closeup below of degree days that are forecast to accumulate over the next 10 days! As a result, the projected date of budburst on the mid-elevation bird plots has jumped forward by an eye-popping 5 days since the last forecast. If the forecast holds, it will be among the earlier leaf-outs in the Hubbard Brook Forest.

[cid:image001.png at 01DA88E3.DB310EB0]

Based on our current best phenology models (after Lany et al. 2016), temperatures to date this year, and the 10-day forecast as of 7 April 2024, predictions for the mid-elevation bird plot (490 m asl) are:

*        Budburst =6 May,

*        90% completion of leaf expansion = 19 May,

*        Median date of arrival and first clutch initiation for Black-throated Blue Warblers = 11 May and 28 May, respectively.
All predicted events have moved forward since the last forecast on 28 March. More details in enclosure.

Feel free to share this with anyone who may be interested. We will aim to provide continuing updates of the forecasts.

Matt

[cid:image002.png at 01DA88E4.0A500BB0]

Matthew P. Ayres<http://www.dartmouth.edu/~mpayres/> (h/h)
Professor of Biological Sciences<https://biology.dartmouth.edu/>; Co-Chair Graduate Program in Ecology, Evolution, Environment & Society<http://sites.dartmouth.edu/EEES/>; Senior Faculty Fellow Institute of Arctic Studies<https://dickey.dartmouth.edu/programs/arctic-environment/institute-arctic-studies>
Life Sciences Center
78 College Street
Hanover, NH  03755  USA
603 646-2788
matthew.p.ayres at dartmouth.edu<mailto:matthew.p.ayres at dartmouth.edu>

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