Greetings Hubbard Brook community,
More good news if you are hoping for a couple extra days to get ready for spring. Since the warm spell of mid-April, it has been cooler than average and the 10-day forecast is to be no warmer than average. Based on our current best phenology
model (after Lany et al. 2016), temperatures to date this year, and the 10-day forecast as 30 April 2023, here is the phenological forecast for the mid-elevation bird plot (490 m asl):
- Budburst = 12 May
- 90% completion of leaf expansion = 25 May,
- Median date of arrival and first clutch initiation for Black-throated Blue Warblers = 13 May and 1 June, respectively.
More details in graphic below and more yet in enclosure.
Feel free to share this with anyone who may be interested. We will aim to provide continuing updates of phenology forecasts through the period of leaf expansion.
Matt
Matthew P. Ayres (h/h)
Professor of
Biological Sciences and Co-Chair
Graduate Program in Ecology, Evolution, Environment & Society
Life Sciences Center
78 College Street
Hanover, NH 03755 USA
603 646-2788
From: Matthew P. Ayres
Sent: Saturday, April 22, 2023 12:31
To: Hubbard Brook (hubbardbrook@lists.sr.unh.edu) <hubbardbrook@lists.sr.unh.edu>
Subject: Hubbard Brook leaf-out forecast, retreating a bit
Greetings Hubbard Brook community,
Good news if you are hoping for a couple extra days to get ready for spring. The warm spell of a week ago had the leaf buds speeding through their phenological journey to become leaves, but it has since turned cooler than average and the
10-day forecast is to remain cool. Based on our current best phenology model (after Lany et al. 2016), temperatures to date this year, and the 10-day forecast as of
22 April 2023, here is the phenological forecast for the mid-elevation bird plot (490 m asl):
- Budburst = 10 May
- 90% completion of leaf expansion = 22 May,
- Median date of arrival and first clutch initiation for Black-throated Blue Warblers = 12 May and 30 May, respectively.
More details in enclosure.
Feel free to share this with anyone who may be interested. We will aim to provide weekly updates of the forecasts.
Matt
Matthew P. Ayres (h/h)
Professor of
Biological Sciences and Co-Chair
Graduate Program in Ecology, Evolution, Environment & Society
Life Sciences Center
78 College Street
Hanover, NH 03755 USA
603 646-2788
