Hi Hubbard Brook,

In the last week, temperatures were slightly cooler than the forecast. As a result the projected date of budburst has moved back from 5 May to 6 May. Forecasts for the other three phenological events that we study have remained unchanged.

Based on our current best phenology models (after Lany et al. 2016), temperatures to date this year, and the 10-day forecast as of 24 April 2021, predictions for budburst on the mid-elevation bird plot (490 m asl) are:

· Budburst = 6 May,

· 90% completion of leaf expansion = 19 May,

· Median date of arrival and first clutch initiation for Black-throated Blue Warblers = 12 May and 28 May, respectively.

More details in enclosure.

Feel free to share this with anyone who may be interested. We will aim to provide weekly updates of the forecasts.

Matt