Hi HB,

Good news if you were hoping for a few extra days before leaf-out this year. The updated spring forecast for budburst on the Main bird plot has slipped back two days since last week to 15 May.

Based on our current best phenology models (after Lany et al. 2015), temperatures to date this year, and the 10-day forecast as of 20 April 2020, predictions for budburst on the Main bird plot (490 m asl) are:

· Budburst = 15 May,

· 90% completion of leaf expansion = 26 May,

· Median date of arrival and first clutch initiation for Black-throated Blue Warblers = 12 May and 1 June, respectively.

More details in enclosure.

If the current budburst prediction is accurate, it will be about 3 days later than that expected for 2020 (below and page 2 in enclosure).

Feel free to share this with anyone who may be interested. We will aim to provide weekly updates of the forecasts.

Matt

From: Matthew P. Ayres
Sent: Saturday, April 11, 2020 18:03
To: HubbardBrookCOS@lists.sr.unh.edu; Scott Sillett <scott.sillett@icloud.com>; Laurel Braden Symes <symes@cornell.edu>; Mike Webster <msw244@cornell.edu>; EGA external Contact: mhallworth@gmail.com <mhallworth@gmail.com>; Liz Studer <Elizabeth.A.Studer.GR@dartmouth.edu>; Elijah Laird <Elijah.W.Laird.21@Dartmouth.edu>; Richard T. Holmes <Richard.T.Holmes@Dartmouth.EDU>; Nick Rodenhouse <nrodenho@wellesley.edu>; Sara Kaiser <sak275@cornell.edu>; Madelyn Joy Ore <mjo234@cornell.edu>; Alicia Rae Brunner <arb433@cornell.edu>
Subject: Leaf-out forecast for Hubbard Brook

Hi HB,

In case you are interested, we can offer our first phenology forecasts for HB 2020.

Based on our current best phenology models (after Lany et al. 2015), temperatures to date this year, and the 10-day forecast as of 11 April 2020, predictions for budburst on the Main bird plot (490 m asl) are:

· Budburst = 13 May,

· 90% completion of leaf expansion = 25 May,

· Median date of arrival and first clutch initiation for Black-throated Blue Warblers = 12 May and 31 May, respectively.

More details in pg 2 of enclosure.

If the current budburst prediction is accurate, it will be about 3 days earlier than the 60-year average but very close to that expected for 2020 (page 1 in enclosure).

Feel free to share this with anyone who may be interested. I will aim to provide weekly updates of the forecasts.

Matt