[HubbardBrook] Hubbard Brook phenology forecast

[Matthew P. Ayres]

Greetings Hubbard Brook community,

I write from my tent near Pleasant View Farm. It is getting pretty green in the lower valley, especially the understory. At Weir 6, the hobblebush have leaves and flowers, but, as forecast, the canopy trees have not yet leafed out. Below is a photo from Weir 6 yesterday. The updated phenology forecasts have crept forward by one day since last week. Canopy leaf-out at Weir 6 is forecast to be Wednesday, which looks like it will be pretty close.

Based on our current best phenology models (after Lany et al. 2016), temperatures to date this year, and the 10-day forecast as of 12 May 2024, predictions for the mid-elevation bird plot (490 m asl) are:

*        Budburst = 15 May,

*        90% completion of leaf expansion = 26 May,

*        Median date of arrival and first clutch initiation for Black-throated Blue Warblers = 12 May and 1 June, respectively.
More details below and in enclosure.

Matt

[cid:image002.png at 01DAA467.5B2D1980]

[cid:image001.png at 01DAA467.455D9A80]



Matthew P. Ayres<http://www.dartmouth.edu/~mpayres/> (h/h)
Professor of Biological Sciences<https://biology.dartmouth.edu/> and Co-Chair Graduate Program in Ecology, Evolution, Environment & Society<http://sites.dartmouth.edu/EEES/>
Life Sciences Center
78 College Street
Hanover, NH  03755  USA
603 646-2788
matthew.p.ayres at Dartmouth.Edu<mailto:matthew.p.ayres at Dartmouth.Edu>



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