[HubbardBrook] Hubbard Brook leaf-out forecast for 2022, updated through 3 May

Tue May 3 21:43:25 EDT 2022

Hi Hubbard Brook community,
Spring is still coming, just not quite as fast as expected. The forecast for leaf-out on the HB bird plots has slipped back 2 days since last Friday. The warblers are coming nonetheless. The first Black-throated Blue Warblers are expected any day, and their median arrival is forecast for three days before leaf-out.

As of 3 May 2022, predicted dates for budburst and 90% completion of leaf expansion are:
16 May and 27 May.
Predicted median dates of Arrival and 1st clutch initiation by Black-throated Blue Warblers are:
13 May and 2 June.

Matt

[cid:image006.png at 01D85F36.C9961AC0]

From: Matthew P. Ayres
Sent: Friday, April 29, 2022 13:15
To: 'Hubbardbrook at lists.sr.unh.edu' <Hubbardbrook at lists.sr.unh.edu>
Subject: Hubbard Brook leaf-out forecast for 2022, updated through 28 April

Greetings Hubbard Brook community,
Since it is crunch time for rapidly approaching field work, we offer a refreshed phenology forecast. Four more days of weather are in the books since the last forecast, and the predictions for leaf-out and warbler phenology have not changed.
As of 28 April 2022, predicted dates for budburst and 90% completion of leaf expansion are:
14 May and 25 May.
For Black-throated Blue Warblers, predicted median dates of arrival and 1st clutch initiation are:
13 May and 1 June.
Matt

[cid:image007.jpg at 01D85F36.C9961AC0]

From: Matthew P. Ayres
Sent: Sunday, April 24, 2022 18:32
To: Hubbardbrook at lists.sr.unh.edu<mailto:Hubbardbrook at lists.sr.unh.edu>
Subject: Hubbard Brook leaf-out forecast for 2022, updated

Greetings Hubbard Brook community,
Whoo, hoo, hoo! You can relax a little if you are trying to get ready for spring. True to last week's forecast, it has remained cool at Hubbard Brook and the 10-day forecast includes more of the same. The leaf-out forecast for mid-elevation birds plots (490 m asl) has slipped back by another two days since week. Leaf-out in Hubbard Brook occurs at about 190 degree days, which is now forecast for 14 May. Close observers of the HB phenology will note that the forecast now projects the median arrival of black-throated blue warblers to occur a day before leafout. But don't be alarmed! This is well within their recent evolutionary experience. We expect them to compensate by being slower to initiate their first nest. The prediction for median date of first clutch initiation by black-throated blues is now 1 June 2022.
Matt

From: Matthew P. Ayres
Sent: Sunday, April 24, 2022 18:32
To: Hubbardbrook at lists.sr.unh.edu<mailto:Hubbardbrook at lists.sr.unh.edu>
Subject: Hubbard Brook leaf-out forecast for 2022, updated

Greetings Hubbard Brook community,
Whoo, hoo, hoo! You can relax a little if you are trying to get ready for spring. True to last week's forecast, it has remained cool at Hubbard Brook and the 10-day forecast includes more of the same. The leaf-out forecast for mid-elevation birds plots (490 m asl) has slipped back by another two days since week. Leaf-out in Hubbard Brook occurs at about 190 degree days, which is now forecast for 14 May. Close observers of the HB phenology will note that the forecast now projects the median arrival of black-throated blue warblers to occur a day before leafout. But don't be alarmed! This is well within their recent evolutionary experience. We expect them to compensate by being slower to initiate their first nest. The prediction for median date of first clutch initiation by black-throated blues is now 1 June 2022.
Matt

[cid:image008.jpg at 01D85F36.C9961AC0]

From: Matthew P. Ayres
Sent: Monday, April 18, 2022 00:00
To: Hubbardbrook at lists.sr.unh.edu<mailto:Hubbardbrook at lists.sr.unh.edu>
Subject: Hubbard Brook leaf-out forecast for 2022, updated

Greetings Hubbard Brook community,
Has it seemed cool? If so, your instincts are good. The leaf-out forecast for mid-elevation birds plots (490 m asl) has slipped back by two days since week. Leaf-out in Hubbard Brook occurs at about 190 degree days, which is now forecast for 12 May.

Based on our current best phenology models (after Lany et al. 2016), temperatures to date this year, and the 10-day forecast as of 17 April 2022, predictions for the mid-elevation bird plot (490 m asl) are:

·       Budburst =12 May,

·       90% completion of leaf expansion = 24 May,

·       Median date of arrival and first clutch initiation for Black-throated Blue Warblers = 13 May and 31 May, respectively.
More details in enclosure.

Feel free to share this with anyone who may be interested. We will aim to provide continuing updates of the forecasts.

Matt

From: Matthew P. Ayres
Sent: Sunday, April 10, 2022 20:24
To: Hubbardbrook at lists.sr.unh.edu<mailto:Hubbardbrook at lists.sr.unh.edu>
Subject: Hubbard Brook leaf-out forecast for 2022, updated

Greetings Hubbard Brook community,
The advance towards spring continues - slowly -- but about as projected in last week's forecast. So far there has been an accumulation since 22 March of only about 20 degree days (> 4 C) on the mid-elevation birds plots (490 m asl). Leaf-out occurs at about 190 degree days. Leaf-out is now forecast for 10 May, which is for one day earlier than last week's forecast.

Based on our current best phenology models (after Lany et al. 2016), temperatures to date this year, and the 10-day forecast as of 10 April 2022, predictions for the mid-elevation bird plot (490 m asl) are:

·       Budburst =10 May,

·       90% completion of leaf expansion = 23 May,

·       Median date of arrival and first clutch initiation for Black-throated Blue Warblers = 12 May and 31 May, respectively.
More details in enclosure.

Feel free to share this with anyone who may be interested. We will aim to provide continuing updates of the forecasts.

Matt

From: HubbardBrook <hubbardbrook-bounces at lists.sr.unh.edu<mailto:hubbardbrook-bounces at lists.sr.unh.edu>> On Behalf Of Matthew P. Ayres via HubbardBrook
Sent: Sunday, April 3, 2022 13:06
To: Hubbardbrook at lists.sr.unh.edu<mailto:Hubbardbrook at lists.sr.unh.edu>
Subject: [HubbardBrook] Hubbard Brook leaf-out forecast for 2022

Greetings Hubbard Brook community,
We are pleased to bring good news. Our first phenology forecast for 2022 predicts that spring will come to Hubbard Brook! There are many degree days yet to pass, but if our current forecast holds, leafout on the mid-elevation birds plots (490 m asl) will occur on 11 May, which is about the expected date for 2022 based on historical records (though it has ranged from 2 May to 1 June since 1956).

If you are considering placing any bets based on our phenology forecast, you may wish to consider that last year's forecast was almost a week too early relative to subsequent observations. This was the largest deviation between predicted and observed in 31 years of predictions from our current model (overall root mean square error = 2.5 d). We hope to use the information from this deviation to further refine the phenology models.

As a result of nice work done over the last year by Dartmouth student Elijah Laird, we can add some additional biological insights into the controls on leaf-out phenology at HB. Elijah's analyses for photoperiodic controls provided strong evidence that sugar maple buds become developmentally responsive to degree days on about 20 March, but beech and yellow birch not until about 31 May. This difference will not matter much this year because it was cold during the days of differential responsiveness (accumulation of only 4 degree days > 4 °C during the last 10 days of March).

Based on our current best phenology models (after Lany et al. 2016), temperatures to date this year, and the 10-day forecast as of 29 April 2021, predictions for the mid-elevation bird plot (490 m asl) are:

·       Budburst =11 May,

·       90% completion of leaf expansion = 23 May,

·       Median date of arrival and first clutch initiation for Black-throated Blue Warblers = 13 May and 31 May, respectively.
More details in enclosure.

Feel free to share this with anyone who may be interested. We will aim to provide continuing updates of the forecasts.

Matt

-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <https://lists.sr.unh.edu/pipermail/hubbardbrook/attachments/20220504/cec87d62/attachment-0001.html>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: image006.png
Type: image/png
Size: 204069 bytes
Desc: image006.png
URL: <https://lists.sr.unh.edu/pipermail/hubbardbrook/attachments/20220504/cec87d62/image006-0001.png>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: image007.jpg
Type: image/jpeg
Size: 68476 bytes
Desc: image007.jpg
URL: <https://lists.sr.unh.edu/pipermail/hubbardbrook/attachments/20220504/cec87d62/image007-0001.jpg>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: image008.jpg
Type: image/jpeg
Size: 82588 bytes
Desc: image008.jpg
URL: <https://lists.sr.unh.edu/pipermail/hubbardbrook/attachments/20220504/cec87d62/image008-0001.jpg>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: HB.Leafout.Forecast.2022.v06.pdf
Type: application/pdf
Size: 2838132 bytes
Desc: HB.Leafout.Forecast.2022.v06.pdf
URL: <https://lists.sr.unh.edu/pipermail/hubbardbrook/attachments/20220504/cec87d62/HB.Leafout.Forecast.2022.v06-0001.pdf>