[HubbardBrook] Hubbard Brook leaf-out forecast for 2021

[Matthew P. Ayres]

Hi Hubbard Brook,
Good news if you are getting anxious from the rapidly advancing spring. The spring phenology forecast for the the mid-elevation bird plot (490 m asl) at Hubbard Brook have slipped back by two days since last.

Based on our current best phenology models (after Lany et al. 2016), temperatures to date this year, and the 10-day forecast as of 29 April 2021, predictions for budburst on the mid-elevation bird plot (490 m asl) are:

*       Budburst = 8 May,

*       90% completion of leaf expansion = 21 May,

*       Median date of arrival and first clutch initiation for Black-throated Blue Warblers = 12 May and 30 May, respectively.
More details in enclosure.

Feel free to share this with anyone who may be interested. We will aim to provide continuing updates of the forecasts.

Matt

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