[HubbardBrook] Updated leaf-out forecast for Hubbard Brook

[Matthew P. Ayres]

Hi HB,
Even more good news if you were hoping for a late spring. The last week has been cooler than forecast and the next 10 days are forecast to be much cooler than average for these dates. As a result, the updated spring forecast for budburst on the Main bird plot has slipped back a whopping 6 days since last week to 21 May.

Based on our current best phenology models (after Lany et al. 2015), temperatures to date this year, and the 10-day forecast as of 5 May 2020, predictions for budburst on the Main bird plot (490 m asl) are:

*       Budburst = 21 May,

*       90% completion of leaf expansion = 31 May,

*       Median date of arrival and first clutch initiation for Black-throated Blue Warblers = 13 May and 4 June, respectively.
More details in enclosure.

If the current budburst prediction is accurate, it will be about 9 days later than that expected for 2020 (below and page 2 in enclosure).

Feel free to share this with anyone who may be interested. We will aim to provide weekly updates of the forecasts.

Matt

[cid:image001.jpg at 01D62260.1B94F500]


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