[HubbardBrook] interest in modeling HB response to climate, disturbance, and nutrients
Ruth D Yanai
rdyanai at syr.edu
Sat Jun 27 18:18:21 EDT 2020
Sorry, all. Now I’ve demonstrated the danger of blasting your reply to the entire list.
Please reply to me at Ruth Yanai <rdyanai at syr.edu<mailto:rdyanai at syr.edu>> and copy "Ed Rastetter" <erastett at mbl.edu<mailto:erastett at mbl.edu>>.
On Jun 27, 2020, at 6:13 PM, Ruth D Yanai <rdyanai at syr.edu<mailto:rdyanai at syr.edu>> wrote:
I copied you on this hoping that people could reply to both of us, but I see that it comes through from the list server without that info.
At Hubbard Brook, MEL is associated with the MELNHE study, so I wanted to make sure that people understood that it wasn’t about that. I’ll let you know what I hear back.
If you’re on the mailing list, you can reply to it if you want to add anything.
On Jun 27, 2020, at 5:54 PM, Ruth D Yanai via HubbardBrook <HubbardBrook at lists.sr.unh.edu<mailto:HubbardBrook at lists.sr.unh.edu>> wrote:
HB Scientists, including grads and post-docs:
Please let me know if any of you are interested in getting involved with Ed Rastteter and colleagues, applying the Multiple Element Limitation (MEL) model to HB scenarios. MEL was initially developed to simulate C and N (multiple elements, right?) and now it has carbon, water, and light, as well as P. The simulations they have done include climate, CO2, and disturbance. This is part of a multi-site effort, and each site is invited to work on additional manuscripts. Let me know within the next week so I can report on interest, and then there will be site-specific meetings, TBA.
x Ruth
Ruth Yanai
Professor
SUNY College of Environmental Science and Forestry
210 Marshall Hall, 1 Forestry Drive, Syracuse, NY 13210
office: 1-315 470-6955 mobile: 1-315 345-7412 e-mail: rdyanai at syr.edu<mailto:rdyanai at syr.edu>
http://www.esf.edu//faculty/yanai
Begin forwarded message:
From: Edward Rastetter <erastetter at mbl.edu<mailto:erastetter at mbl.edu>>
Subject: MEL modeling workshop
Date: June 26, 2020 at 11:23:08 AM EDT
To: Ruth D Yanai <rdyanai at syr.edu<mailto:rdyanai at syr.edu>>
Cc: Bonnie Kwiatkowski <bkwiatkowski at mbl.edu<mailto:bkwiatkowski at mbl.edu>>, David Kicklighter <dkicklighter at mbl.edu<mailto:dkicklighter at mbl.edu>>
Dear Ruth,
It has been a while since our workshop in Santa Barbara on modeling the responses of ecosystems to climate change and disturbance using the Multiple Element Limitation (MEL) model. We now have MEL model calibrations for all 12 ecosystems and simulations for climate-change responses (4 simulations) and recovery from disturbance (6 simulations).
We had hoped to schedule a second workshop last fall, but the calibrations have taken longer than we had anticipated. Now with the COVID-19 pandemic a face-to-face workshop is out of the question. As an alternative, we propose a series of zoom-based meetings:
1) A zoom-based group meeting for us to report on our progress and re-familiarize the group with the project goals. We will send a doodle-poll to check availability for about 1 hour on the afternoon of either July 7, 8, 9, or 10.
2) A set of meetings between the MBL team and the individual sites to discuss the individual calibrations, our characterization of the site, and the results of the simulations.
3) A series of whole-group meetings to discuss among-site comparisons and the development of synthesis papers.
Because these meetings are zoom-based, we can easily afford to expand the number of participants. I hope we can engage several researchers from the sites to participate, especially graduate students and post-docs who might be able to make use of the model for their own research. Please let us know who else from your site to invite so we can send the zoom link.
We will of course make the model and all data available to anyone along with guidance on how to apply the model. Model code will also be made available if anyone wants to modify or augment the model for their own purposes.
We have run simulations for all the sites for the scenarios listed below. We have attached some results from your site to this email for you to review. The PDF file includes:
I) Daily climate data used to calibrate the model
II) Daily output for one year at steady state to illustrate seasonal patterns in the C budget and canopy and root phenology.
III) 100-year simulations of response to climate change with linearly ramped projections of CO2 (current to 2x), temperature (current to +3.5OC), and precipitation (current to +10%). We ran four simulations:
A) projected CO2, temperature, and precipitation
B) projected CO2, alone
C) projected temperature, alone
D) projected precipitation, alone
On a second attached PDF file is a figure of the changes after 100 years in vegetation, total soil, and total ecosystem C for all 12 ecosystems for these four climate-change simulations (total soil = Phase I soil + Phase II soil + debris).
IV) 2,000-year simulations of recovery from disturbance assuming:
A) "Blowdown" transfer of 99% of vegetation biomass to debris & Phase I soil
B) 99% vegetation removed & soil left untouched
C) 99% vegetation removed, debris and Phase I soil removed
D) 99% vegetation removed, debris, Phase I soil and 50% Phase II soil removed
E) 99% vegetation removed, debris, Phase I soil and 75% Phase II soil removed
F) 99% vegetation removed, debris, Phase I soil and 100% Phase II soil removed
The model generates substantially more data than is included in these figures. We have made all these results plus the model available on HYPERLINK at:
https://mbledu-my.sharepoint.com/:f:/g/personal/bkwiatkowski_mbl_edu/Egp0gIpSVlhAhJqVkNho3jIBWoV1M-uzpqo5fukpIUNT0w?e=QFJ1No
Initial group meeting: This meeting is intended to bring you up to date with what we have done since the last meeting and to introduce any new participants to the project.
Individual site meetings: I expect a series of meetings for each site to discuss the following:
1) Is the calibration a reasonable representation of the site?
a) are annual fluxes and stocks reasonable?
b) are seasonal patterns reasonable?
2) Are there other site-based simulations you would like to run?
2) Are there site-based papers that might be developed?
a) Authorship?
b) is there a graduate student that might lead this paper as part of their thesis
or dissertation?
c) is there a Post-doc interested in taking a lead?
3) From the site perspective, what are the interesting questions that might be addressed
in the cross-site comparisons?
Multi-site meeting(s): We need to decide on a theme for a group paper or papers.
1) Compare climate-change responses
a) What ecosystem characteristics are associated with magnitude of response?
i) relative response
ii) absolute response
b) What aspects of climate change are the major drivers of the response?
i) is the answer the same for all ecosystems?
ii) if not, what causes the difference?
2) Compare disturbance-recovery responses
a) how does the timing of recovery differ among ecosystems?
b) what factors limit recovery and during which phases of recovery?
3) Are climate and disturbance papers separate of combined?
4) Authorship?
Hope you are well and staying safe.
Best,
Ed
<AllSites.ClimateC.pdf><HBF.Figures.pdf>_______________________________________________
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