[HubbardBrook] Updated leaf-out forecast for Hubbard Brook

[Matthew P. Ayres]

Hi HB,
Those of us who live in NH and thereabouts were able to enjoy some late season snow last weekend. If you were like me, you might have wondered "How will this cool weather affect spring at HB." The answer is:  about one day.  The updated spring forecasts for four phenology events on the Main bird plot all slipped back one day since last week.

Based on our current best phenology models (after Lany et al. 2015), temperatures to date this year, and the 10-day forecast as of 28 April 2020, predictions for budburst on the Main bird plot (490 m asl) are:

*       Budburst = 16 May,

*       90% completion of leaf expansion = 27 May,

*       Median date of arrival and first clutch initiation for Black-throated Blue Warblers = 13 May and 3 June, respectively.
More details in enclosure.

If the current budburst prediction is accurate, it will be about 3 days later than that expected for 2020 (below and page 2 in enclosure).

Feel free to share this with anyone who may be interested. We will aim to provide continuing weekly updates of the forecasts.

Matt

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